L. A. SECTION ENTERPRISE CHAPTER

Kent Tobiska, President and Chief Scientist of Space Environment Technologies (SET), introduced the attendees of the Enterprise chapter meeting on May 8, 2007 to the space weather business, which he estimated has grown from a market of less than $10 million in 2000 to about $25 million in 2007.

We usually think of weather terrestrially, occurring in the troposphere which extends to about 12 km in altitude, and in the stratosphere which extends to as high as 50 km. Space weather goes beyond these altitudes, including also the region of the mesosphere which reaches about 100 km, and the thermosphere which extends up to about 800 km. Space weather involves the short-term variations in the interactions of photons, particles and fields, primarily from the sun, with the earth’s natural environment and the technological systems operated by society.

Space weather affects near-earth systems, terrestrial systems and space systems. Many potential customers are still unaware of the value of space weather services, so market development is paced by the rate at which this awareness grows. Particularly sensitive to space weather are communication systems, satellites, energy production and distribution systems, and transportation systems.

Variations to the thermosphere are caused by solar flares, galactic cosmic rays, micrometeoroids, the continually growing amount of man-made debris (the recent Chinese satellite intercept added an unusually large amount of debris to that already existing) and man-made CO₂ rising from the stratosphere. These variations affect satellite drag and lifetimes.

About 20% of all electronic failures in satellites are attributable to the environment, largely due to solar flares. These cause effects such as total satellite failure, power degradation, loss of automatic flight control, soft errors from single event upsets (SEU’s), surface and dielectric discharge, and loss of orbit precision due to increased drag from ultra-violet (UV) radiation.

The electron density in the ionosphere varies by latitude and time of day and solar activity. Space weather disturbances affect reflection characteristics and communication frequencies of the ionosphere. Sometimes short wave "fade" causes signals to be lost, and sometimes the inability of signals to propagate through the electron field because of scintillation causes data interruptions. Ionospheric variability can generate inaccuracies in Global Positioning System (GPS) positioning that adversely affect transportation systems and alignment/position of key assets like oil drilling and civil engineering equipment.

Space weather can have significant impacts to airline operations, particularly on polar routes. Navigation can be a problem during periods of high solar activity. HF signals may be lost at high latitudes, GPS signals can become scrambled, Long Range Navigation (LORAN) system and the Omega Navigation System can be distorted and rendered unusable. In addition, radiation exposure at cruising altitudes can result in high dosages to airline passengers and crews. The financial impact of route diversion may approach $100,000 for each flight affected.

Many of us remember the massive power blackouts in the Eastern U.S. and Canada caused by magnetic field disturbances. Severe internal damage to some power transformers resulted as well.

SET products include solar flare forecasts, atmospheric density forecasts, and mitigation actions. They improve re-entry predictions, reduce loss of Radio Frequency (RF) communication links, and improve spacecraft autonomous data collection and processing.

On a typical SET product, about two thirds of the users are research establishments. Tobiska believes that with increased awareness by communities whose hardware is affected, the market will grow. SET has taken several initiatives to increase that awareness. SET has surveyed operations and planning customers to ascertain what products they would like to have and how they would use those products. The survey led to several challenges. One is a requirement for better solar indices to lengthen the time applicable to reliable forecasts and the tailoring of those indices to fit specific altitude regions more accurately. Another requirement is for near-term prediction of the global ionosphere, global total electron contact (TEC) to quantify GPS uncertainties, and improvement of communication link capabilities for RF signals. The operators and planners also wish to understand space vehicle materials requirements to withstand photon bombardments. In another initiative to increasing awareness, SET provides graduate level courses on space environment at University of Southern California (USC) to familiarize potential users; last semester there were about 80 attendees.

Lack of clarity or disagreement within the aerospace industry on how to mitigate space weather also impedes market development. SET addresses this challenge by proactive leadership in International Standardization Organization (ISO) space systems and in the AIAA Atmosphere and Space Environment Committee on Standards.

The market is fragmented by customer and by industry. Among the customers, NASA and NSF concentrate on basic research. DOD space activities are focused on demonstrating prototypes of satellite systems, and some DOD and commercial customers are concentrating on operational applications. Within the industry, the pattern is one of small specialty groups each serving a piece of a large and complex system. SET itself was formed when Northrop decided that space weather was not a large enough market to warrant a dedicated business area, and began life as a contractor for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). SET considers itself the market leader in product development and partnering with other contractors. SET partners and their specialties include Exploration Physics International (solar wind), Space Environment Corporation (ionosphere forecasts), sysRAND (satellite avionics expert systems), and USC Science Center (solar data). SET is confident that this proactive approach will result in healthy growth of the market, and SET along with it, in the coming years.

Guido Frassinelli 08/27/07